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The waterways in Texas Hill Country have carved paths over the centuries through the granite and limestone, shaping the rocky peaks and valleys that make the region so breathtaking.
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When too much rain falls for the ground to absorb, it runs downhill, pulled by gravity into streams, creeks and rivers. The rain fills the waterways beyond their banks, and the excess overflows in predictable patterns that follow the terrain.

Governments and waterway managers know what will flood first and who will be threatened when a truly historic rain event takes place.
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The Federal Emergency Management Agency maintains a database of flood zones throughout the country. It maps the regulatory floodways — the places that will flood first and are most dangerous — and the areas that will flood in extreme events.

The Guadalupe River flood was a 1-in-100-year event, meaning it has about a 1% chance of happening in any given year. Extreme flooding is happening more frequently as the world warms and the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture.

Texas has already seen multiple dangerous flooding events this year, and the United States overall saw a record number of flash flood emergencies last year.

More than an entire summer’s worth of rain fell in some spots in central Texas in just a few hours early on the Fourth of July, quickly overwhelming dry soils and creating significant flash flooding. Central Texas is currently home to some of the worst drought in the United States and bone-dry soils flood very quickly.

Camp Mystic is a nondenominational Christian summer camp for girls in western Kerr County. The camp is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged.
Camp Mystic has two sites, both of which overlap with either the floodway or areas the federal government has determined have a 1% or 0.2% annual chance of flooding.

The camp confirmed that at least 27 campers and counsellors perished in the floods, in a statement on its website. It said it is in communication with local authorities who are continuing to search for “missing girls.”

Ten minutes north on the South Fork is Camp La Junta, a boys camp. Some of Camp La Junta’s property also coincides with areas known to flood, though several of its buildings are located in the lower-risk zone, or outside the flood zones entirely.

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Extreme heat is a killer. A recent heat wave shows how much more deadly it’s becoming
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Extreme heat is a killer and its impact is becoming far, far deadlier as the human-caused climate crisis supercharges temperatures, according to a new study, which estimates global warming tripled the number of deaths in the recent European heat wave.

For more than a week, temperatures in many parts of Europe spiked above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Tourist attractions closed, wildfires ripped through several countries, and people struggled to cope on a continent where air conditioning is rare.
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The outcome was deadly. Thousands of people are estimated to have lost their lives, according to a first-of-its-kind rapid analysis study published Wednesday.

A team of researchers, led by Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, looked at 10 days of extreme heat between June 23 and July 2 across 12 European cities, including London, Paris, Athens, Madrid and Rome.

They used historical weather data to calculate how intense the heat would have been if humans had not burned fossil fuels and warmed the world by 1.3 degrees Celsius. They found climate change made Europe’s heat wave 1 to 4 degrees Celsius (1.8 to 7.2 Fahrenheit) hotter.

The scientists then used research on the relationship between heat and daily deaths to estimate how many people lost their lives.

They found approximately 2,300 people died during ten days of heat across the 12 cities, around 1,500 more than would have died in a world without climate change. In other words, global heating was responsible for 65% of the total death toll.

“The results show how relatively small increases in the hottest temperatures can trigger huge surges in death,” the study authors wrote.

Heat has a particularly pernicious impact on people with underlying health conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes and respiratory problems.

People over 65 years old were most affected, accounting for 88% of the excess deaths, according to the analysis. But heat can be deadly for anyone. Nearly 200 of the estimated deaths across the 12 cities were among those aged 20 to 65.

Climate change was responsible for the vast majority of heat deaths in some cities. In Madrid, it accounted for about 90% of estimated heat wave deaths, the analysis found.

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